Samer Choucair: Dollar Weakness and ETF Inflows Could Push Bitcoin Back Toward Its Record High
Investment entrepreneur Samer Choucair said Bitcoin’s return to the spotlight in August was not simply another rally in the cryptocurrency market, but the result of three intersecting forces that are likely to determine its direction in September: global liquidity, the U.S. regulatory path, and the sustainability of institutional demand through spot exchange-traded funds.
Samer Choucair explained that Bitcoin gained roughly 23% in a single week, moving above $80,000 following record inflows into U.S. spot ETFs, the liquidation of short positions, a weaker dollar, and declining Treasury yields. He said the central question is no longer whether Bitcoin can remain above the mid-$70,000 range, but whether September’s move represents a structural repricing or merely a rebound within the corrective trend that began after the October 2025 peak near $126,000.
$1.92 Billion Brings Institutions Back Into the Market
Choucair said Bitcoin traded between approximately $63,000 and $65,000 in mid-August before gains accelerated from August 19, producing its strongest weekly advance in nearly three years and taking the cryptocurrency to its highest levels since May.
He noted that Bitcoin ended August near $77,600 after partially correcting from a peak above $81,000, but argued that the more important factor was the source of demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $1.92 billion in a single week, their strongest weekly inflow in ten months, while BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for nearly $1.3 billion.
At the same time, around $2.5 billion in bearish Bitcoin positions were liquidated over three days, compared with approximately $4.5 billion across the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Choucair cautioned that short covering can accelerate a rally, but it cannot create a sustainable trend without new buyers entering the market.
Liquidity Matters More Than the “Crypto Narrative”
Samer Choucair said the earlier correction was not caused by a failure in Bitcoin’s protocol or scarcity thesis, but by a repricing of the discount rate.
He explained that the Federal Reserve, under Chairman Kevin Warsh, maintained its target interest-rate range at 3.50% to 3.75% through five consecutive meetings in 2026 amid inflation that remained above target, while the dollar stayed strong and real yields remained elevated.
The result was pressure on non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin, which lost roughly half its value from the October 2025 record high near $126,000 and ended the first half of 2026 close to $60,000.
Choucair said what changed in the second half of August was the monetary equation. The U.S. Treasury announced that it would double the maximum size of its long-dated bond buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation across the 10-to-20-year and 20-to-30-year maturity ranges, beginning September 9 and continuing through November 4.
Markets interpreted the move as supportive of liquidity at the long end of the yield curve. Long-term yields declined, the dollar weakened, and risk appetite improved, creating a combination to which Bitcoin responded rapidly.
Three Critical Tests in September
According to Samer Choucair, the first major test will be the dollar and Treasury yields. Continued weakness in both would support higher-risk assets, while stronger-than-expected inflation data, geopolitical escalation, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve tone could put renewed pressure on Bitcoin.
Choucair said the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15 and 16 will therefore be a major event, with the Fed’s tone and its projected interest-rate path for 2027 potentially proving more important than the rate decision itself.
The second test will be regulatory. The CLARITY Act has returned to the agenda after passing the House of Representatives in 2025 and being delayed in the Senate before the August recess, with a procedural hearing expected in mid-September.
Choucair said the legislation would not alter Bitcoin’s issuance mechanism, but could reduce the regulatory uncertainty premium by clarifying the respective jurisdictions of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. That could create additional room for custody products, derivatives, and institutional portfolio structures.
The third test will be ETF flows. Choucair said that if inflows continue at hundreds of millions of dollars per week after the impact of short covering fades, the market narrative would shift toward genuine net accumulation against a constrained mining supply following the 2024 halving.
If ETF flows reverse alongside profit-taking, however, the market could return to the scenario of a rebound occurring within a broader corrective trend.
Bitcoin Is an Institutional Asset, Not an Insulated One
Samer Choucair said institutional investors no longer approach Bitcoin in the same way they did in 2021, as spot ETFs have created a regulated channel for gaining exposure to the asset.
That institutionalization, however, has not removed Bitcoin’s sensitivity to monetary policy.
Choucair noted that during the first half of 2026, ETFs shifted from being a consistently positive source of net demand to a source of two-way flows, recording periods of net outflows during the correction.
He argued that Bitcoin’s weighting within portfolios should therefore be determined by correlation and risk-adjusted return rather than by narrative alone.
Investors should not treat Bitcoin as a complete substitute for either gold or equities, he said, and any allocation should assume the possibility of a 40% to 50% drawdown without forcing the investor to sell at distressed levels.
The Gulf Distinguishes Price Exposure From Digital Infrastructure
Samer Choucair said Bitcoin’s rally in the United States does not automatically translate into a mandate to buy the asset in Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, or Doha.
Saudi Arabia remains cautious toward unlicensed virtual currencies, while tokenization, real-world assets, and regulated investment structures are progressing on separate tracks.
Choucair said the Public Investment Fund, with assets exceeding $900 billion and a new strategy for 2026–2030, is focused on artificial intelligence, energy transition, and advanced manufacturing, while also targeting the tokenization of significant asset values by 2030.
For long-term Gulf investors, he said, it is essential to distinguish between price exposure through regulated investment instruments and investment in the infrastructure supporting settlement, tokenization, and governance.
“Confusing the two,” Choucair said, “turns a diversification strategy into an unmanaged bet.”
The Risks Extend Beyond Price Movements
Choucair identified several key risks for September, including the fading effect of short covering, profit-taking after gains exceeding 20% in one week, a renewed rise in the dollar and Treasury yields following an economic or geopolitical shock, and another delay in the CLARITY Act.
He also noted that September has historically produced relatively weak average returns for Bitcoin.
Seasonality is not destiny, Choucair said, but it becomes more relevant when it coincides with institutional portfolio repositioning at the end of a quarter.
Three Possible Market Scenarios
Samer Choucair said a continuation of dollar weakness, positive ETF inflows, and legislative progress could push Bitcoin toward the $90,000 to $100,000 range before the end of the year, with the possibility of another test of the record high if liquidity develops into a broader cycle.
Under a base-case scenario, Bitcoin would remain volatile between support levels established around the mid-$50,000 to $60,000 range and resistance above $80,000. In that environment, managing portfolio weight would become more important than making a one-directional market bet.
Under a more cautious scenario, Bitcoin could return to test its 2026 lows if the Federal Reserve becomes more hawkish or ETF flows reverse, potentially delaying a recovery of the historic high until 2027 or later.
September Will Be the Real Test
Samer Choucair said September will reveal whether the U.S. liquidity environment after September 9 is sustainable, whether the CLARITY Act can progress through the Senate ahead of the midterm-election season, and whether ETF inflows have shifted from a temporary reaction into persistent institutional accumulation.
A positive outcome across those variables could restore Bitcoin’s position as an asset deserving a tactical allocation within multi-asset portfolios, Choucair said, not as a substitute for gold or equities, but as a limited-supply asset that remains highly sensitive to global liquidity.
Investment entrepreneur Samer Choucair concluded that institutional capital should not be judged by the accuracy of a weekly price forecast, but by the quality of the risk framework behind the investment decision.
An investor entering September with a clearly defined position size, identified liquidity sources, and predetermined rebalancing levels can use volatility as an execution tool, Choucair said. By contrast, an investor entering the market with a “jackpot” narrative may discover that markets only reward those who have already planned how they will finance the potential loss before pursuing the upside.