Samer Choucair: $25 Billion Separates the Gulf From the “Hormuz Nightmare”
Investment leader Samer Choucair said the Gulf Research Center’s proposal to build a coastal Gulf pipeline that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz represents a significant shift in the concept of regional energy security. He stressed that the proposed project is not a gas-export pipeline, but a strategic corridor designed to transport crude oil directly toward the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean.
Choucair said the proposal calls for a pipeline of roughly 2,400 kilometers, with capacity ranging from 3 million to 5 million barrels per day and an estimated cost of between $15 billion and $25 billion. The route would extend from Kuwait’s oil fields to a loading terminal in Salalah, Oman, passing through Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. According to the study, the project could require approximately seven to 10 years to complete once the necessary commercial and political arrangements are in place.
Samer Choucair said the importance of the project lies not only in the scale of the investment, but in its ability to reduce the Gulf’s dependence on a single strategic chokepoint for crude exports.
Saudi Arabia already operates the East-West Pipeline, with nominal capacity of around 5 million barrels per day, while the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline allows a significant share of Emirati crude to bypass Hormuz. Kuwait and Qatar, however, remain more exposed because of their more limited overland alternatives for crude exports.
Choucair said institutional capital is increasingly viewing energy infrastructure as a geopolitical risk-management tool rather than simply as an operating asset designed to generate returns.
For investors, he said, the calculation is becoming increasingly strategic. The cost of constructing an alternative export corridor today must be compared with the potential cost of interrupted exports, higher insurance and financing premiums, disrupted contractual obligations, and reduced market access if navigation through the Strait of Hormuz comes under severe pressure.
Samer Choucair added that if the project moves from the study phase into actual development, it could create substantial opportunities across engineering, construction, energy services, transportation, and logistics, while also strengthening Oman’s position as an energy-export hub serving Asian markets.
Choucair emphasized that the greatest challenge is not purely technical.
The project would require political and financial coordination among several countries over transit routes, cost sharing, tariffs, pumping rights, governance, and operating responsibilities. Those complexities would come in addition to engineering challenges involving terrain, security, and the integration of a major cross-border pipeline system.
For institutional investors, Choucair said this governance dimension could ultimately be as important as the physical infrastructure itself.
A project of this scale would require clear agreements on ownership, financing, capacity allocation, operating standards, maintenance, and dispute resolution. Without a durable governance framework, even strategically attractive infrastructure can struggle to generate the reliability that long-term capital requires.
Choucair concluded that the recent pressure surrounding the Strait of Hormuz has demonstrated that energy security is now directly embedded in investment decision-making.
Countries and companies with multiple export routes will be better positioned to protect cash flows, preserve contractual reliability, and absorb geopolitical shocks over the coming decade.
Samer Choucair said the broader lesson is that energy resilience is becoming part of valuation itself. In an increasingly fragmented geopolitical environment, the ability to move crude through more than one corridor can become a competitive advantage, a financing advantage, and a form of strategic insurance.
In that context, the proposed $15 billion to $25 billion pipeline is more than an infrastructure project. It represents a potential shift in the Gulf’s energy architecture from dependence on a single maritime chokepoint toward a more diversified system built around resilience, redundancy, and long-term strategic flexibility.