Samer Choucair: Bitcoin’s Correction Is Redirecting Capital Between Digital Assets and Traditional Investments
Entrepreneur Samer Choucair said the Bitcoin market is passing through one of its most sensitive phases since the beginning of the current cycle, after the digital currency remained above its 200-week moving average for a third consecutive week despite declining by approximately 48% to 50% from its record high of more than $126,000 in October 2025 and currently stabilizing near $65,000.
Choucair explained that this development represents more than a technical price test. It is also testing institutional capital’s ability to rebuild positions in digital assets amid relatively high interest rates, volatile flows into exchange-traded funds, and increasing pressure on digital-treasury companies that accumulated substantial Bitcoin holdings during years of abundant liquidity.
He added that the current phase requires investors to reassess the relationship between risk and return and determine whether holding historical support levels marks the beginning of a gradual reallocation of capital or merely a temporary pause before another correction.
Bitcoin tests historical support
Samer Choucair explained that Bitcoin remaining above its 200-week moving average for three consecutive weeks is one of the most important signals monitored by institutional investors, as this level has historically separated bullish and bearish cycles.
He added that despite its substantial decline from the record high, the digital currency continues to trade near important structural support levels, placing the market at the intersection of technical analysis and macroeconomic developments, particularly as the Federal Open Market Committee meeting approaches at the end of July.
Choucair noted that current levels provide a clear map of market risk. Bitcoin is trading between $63,000 and $65,000, while the first resistance zones appear between $67,000 and $83,000. Principal support lies at $58,000, followed by $49,000.
Monetary policy continues to drive the market
Samer Choucair said Bitcoin’s movements have become more closely connected to US monetary-policy decisions than in previous cycles.
He explained that markets expect the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates within a range of 3.50% to 3.75% at its next meeting, with investors focusing more on the tone of the statement and the inflation outlook than on the decision itself.
Choucair added that persistently high real yields on US Treasury securities continue to place pressure on high-risk assets, particularly digital currencies.
He noted that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded a relative improvement in inflows during July after substantial outflows in June, indicating the beginning of a selective return in institutional demand.
“Global liquidity remains relatively constrained, but the preservation of long-term support levels reflects a shift in market psychology from impulsive selling toward a reassessment of intrinsic value,” Choucair said. “This is encouraging some institutions to rebalance their portfolios gradually.”
Institutional investors change the rules of the market
Samer Choucair explained that the current cycle differs from previous ones because of the significant transformation in ownership structure.
He noted that exchange-traded funds and listed companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets now account for a growing proportion of the circulating supply.
This has reduced the influence of individual investors, but it has also made prices more sensitive to large capital movements.
Choucair added that institutions with long-term investment horizons may use continued trading above the 200-week moving average as an opportunity to rebuild positions gradually. However, any weekly close below $58,000 would lead to an immediate reassessment of exposure to the digital asset.
Digital-treasury companies face their most difficult test
Samer Choucair said the current correction has exposed the vulnerability of digital-treasury companies whose business models have relied on issuing shares to finance additional Bitcoin purchases.
He explained that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy and the largest publicly disclosed institutional holder of Bitcoin, owns more than 843,000 Bitcoin at an average cost of approximately $75,500 per coin.
The current price trading below that average has resulted in estimated unrealized losses of approximately $9 billion, while the company’s shares are now trading at a clear discount to the net value of its digital assets.
Choucair noted that the company recently sold limited quantities of Bitcoin to strengthen liquidity and fund preferred-share dividends, representing a departure from the full-retention policy it had followed in previous years.
He explained that the total value of digital-treasury company holdings had declined from approximately $120 billion at its peak to nearly $75 billion, while smaller companies announced partial or complete sales of their holdings to meet financial obligations.
“The digital-treasury model succeeded in an environment of abundant liquidity and high valuation premiums,” Choucair said. “Today, the decline of those premiums and the transformation of some companies into potential sellers create a reinforcing cycle of pressure on prices. Institutional investors are now focusing more on balance-sheet quality than on the narrative surrounding the asset.”
Capital is reallocated toward quality
Samer Choucair noted that investment flows during recent months reflect a gradual shift in institutional priorities.
He explained that part of the capital has moved toward gold, short-term government bonds, and equities supported by strong cash flows, while digital assets and digital-treasury shares have received lower relative weightings in portfolios.
Choucair added that this shift reflects increasing investor exposure to sectors linked to artificial intelligence, infrastructure, energy, and advanced manufacturing, where business models are more stable and cash flows are clearer.
He emphasized that institutional investors no longer view Bitcoin solely as a speculative instrument, but as a macroeconomic asset that should be assessed according to the same standards applied to other assets, including liquidity and risk management.
The Gulf and Vision 2030: opportunities beyond digital currencies
Samer Choucair said the current transformation carries important implications for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries as economic-diversification programmes and Vision 2030 continue.
He explained that Gulf sovereign wealth funds are expanding their investments in the digital economy while increasingly prioritizing sectors capable of generating long-term structural growth, including renewable energy, artificial intelligence, logistics, and digital infrastructure.
Choucair added that the current decline in Bitcoin could encourage part of institutional liquidity to be redirected toward regional markets and sectors connected to the region’s economic transformation.
He noted that institutional capital tends to rebalance toward assets combining inflation protection with high liquidity during periods of correction.
“In the Gulf, opportunities linked to Vision 2030 remain more attractive than excessive exposure to the severe volatility of digital assets,” Choucair said.
Risks and opportunities
Samer Choucair emphasized that significant risks remain. Further tightening of US monetary policy, renewed outflows from Bitcoin funds, or continued selling by digital-treasury companies could push the market toward lower support levels.
He explained that continued trading above the 200-week moving average, combined with declining liquid supply and a higher proportion of long-term holders, could support gradual repricing if global liquidity improves and institutional confidence returns.
Choucair added that the current phase may also create opportunities for investors capable of distinguishing between companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable business models and those that depend excessively on continuous financing.
A strategic outlook
Concluding his remarks, Samer Choucair emphasized that institutional investment in Bitcoin is no longer based on pursuing rapid upward price movements. It is increasingly focused on managing structural risks and building positions suited to a long-term investment horizon.
“Investors who treat Bitcoin as a complementary macroeconomic asset rather than merely as a speculative instrument will be best positioned to benefit when the market tests its structural boundaries,” Choucair said. “Capital reallocation during this phase should be gradual, with a strong focus on governance, transparency, and liquidity management.”
Samer Choucair concluded that Bitcoin’s prospects during the second half of 2026 will remain closely linked to the direction of global monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and institutional investor behaviour.
Maintaining current support levels could reopen the door to the gradual return of capital, while any structural breakdown would trigger a comprehensive reassessment of digital-asset investment strategies.