Samer Choucair: Turning Egypt Into a Manufacturing and Export Platform Is the Real Test of BRICS Membership
Investment leader Samer Choucair said the rise in trade and investment between Egypt and BRICS countries reflects Cairo’s success in broadening its network of economic partners, but stressed that the real challenge has shifted from increasing trade volumes to improving their quality and converting capital inflows into export oriented productive capacity that can ease pressure on the balance of payments and the currency.
Samer Choucair explained that trade between Egypt and BRICS countries rose to approximately $36.7 billion during the first half of 2026, an increase of 25.5% compared with the same period in 2025, while investments from BRICS countries in Egypt reached around $3.7 billion, up by nearly 30%.
Samer Choucair noted that the picture becomes more complex once the figures are broken down. Egyptian exports to BRICS countries declined to about $6.6 billion, while imports rose to approximately $30.1 billion, widening the trade deficit with the group to nearly $24 billion in just six months.
Samer Choucair said: “Membership lowers the political cost of entry, but it does not reduce the cost of being uncompetitive. If the export basket remains concentrated in primary or intermediate goods with limited added value, stronger trade growth will expand imports faster than it builds reserves.”
Samer Choucair explained that Egypt officially joined BRICS in January 2024 as part of the group’s expansion from five founding members to eleven members by 2025. The move was intended to diversify trading partners and reduce excessive dependence on the dollar. Trade between Egypt and BRICS countries rose to around $53.5 billion in 2025 before accelerating further during the first half of 2026.
He emphasized that stronger headline trade figures do not necessarily translate into more balanced commercial integration, particularly as Egyptian exports declined by 11.6% during the first half of the year while imports increased by approximately 38.1%.
Samer Choucair said Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates were the leading destinations for Egyptian exports within the group during the first half of 2026, at approximately $1.8 billion and $1.7 billion respectively, while China remained the largest source of Egyptian imports within BRICS at more than $10 billion.
He added that investment from BRICS countries rose to around $3.7 billion in the first half of the 2025 and 2026 financial year, compared with $2.9 billion in the corresponding period. However, he said the true economic value of these flows depends on how capital is distributed between real estate and services on one side, and export manufacturing, logistics, renewable energy, and engineering industries on the other.
Samer Choucair said institutional investors distinguish between “investing in the Egyptian market” and “investing through Egypt.” The first model depends on domestic demand, the exchange rate, and existing assets. The second depends on Egypt’s ability to become a manufacturing and reexport platform serving Africa, Europe, and the Gulf.
He said: “BRICS expands the pool of suppliers and buyers, but institutional capital will move toward assets that reduce the deficit rather than those that reproduce it.”
Choucair identified some of the strongest opportunities in food manufacturing, chemicals, electrical equipment, specialized building materials, and logistics linked to the Suez Canal, alongside Gulf investment in projects with high local content and clear export potential.
He said Egypt can benefit simultaneously from its position within BRICS and its strong Gulf relationships by becoming part of regional supply chains connecting Africa, Europe, and the Gulf, provided that the business environment for exports, energy, and customs governance continues to improve.
Samer Choucair warned that a widening trade deficit with countries representing a growing share of Egypt’s external trade could increase pressure on net foreign assets and raise the cost of capital, particularly if stronger import growth is not accompanied by a comparable expansion in domestic productive and export capacity.
Choucair said: “Smart capital does not buy a South South narrative. It buys a factory that exports, a port that shortens cycle times, and a company that raises local content. BRICS can provide demand and financing, but returns are ultimately created inside the host economy.”
He added that institutional investors will monitor three indicators closely during the next phase: the share of manufactured exports in Egypt’s trade with BRICS, the allocation of foreign investment between exportable sectors and domestic sectors, and the extent to which local currency settlements move from announced initiatives into meaningful trade volumes.
Samer Choucair concluded that the success of Egypt’s BRICS membership will not be measured by trade volumes alone. It will depend on the country’s ability to convert those relationships into production, technology, productivity, and higher value exports.
He said the real test is whether BRICS becomes a platform for expanding Egypt’s productive economic base or simply a larger partner within an already widening trade deficit.