Samer Choucair: Real Estate Capital Is Moving From Land Speculation to Community Building
Al Ramz Real Estate and SNB Capital have launched three real estate investment funds valued at more than SAR 4.62 billion to develop residential land in the Al Jawharah masterplan in Riyadh’s Al Raed district. Covering more than 131,000 square meters and targeting approximately 3,300 residential units, the initiative reflects a broader shift in Saudi real estate investment toward structured development rather than speculation on rising land prices.
Investment leader Samer Choucair said institutional investors are no longer simply buying into the story of Riyadh’s appreciation. Instead, they are assessing whether developers can operationally transform land into housing units that can be sold off-plan at prices the underlying demand base can realistically absorb.
“The institutional investor is no longer buying the story of Riyadh’s appreciation as much as the operating capability to convert land into units that can be sold off-plan at prices affordable to genuine end-user demand,” Samer Choucair said.
He noted that development-focused real estate funds are returning to prominence as the appeal of short-term speculative cycles declines while structural demand for housing remains intact.
Samer Choucair said the partnership between Al Ramz Real Estate and SNB Capital, covering investments and projects exceeding SAR 10 billion, illustrates how the market is moving toward a model in which land can be converted into a financeable and saleable operating asset rather than retained as undeveloped inventory.
The transaction comes as Saudi household homeownership reached approximately 66.2% by the end of 2025, against a final target of 70%. Meanwhile, population growth and Riyadh’s continued urban expansion are supporting residential demand. Through the Sakani platform, the Ministry of Municipalities and Housing has also offered approximately 9,700 residential land plots from the beginning of 2026 through the end of August, with the Riyadh region accounting for the largest share.
From Land Appreciation to Housing Demand
Samer Choucair said the remaining homeownership gap, combined with Riyadh’s continued expansion as a business and services hub, means that developing integrated residential communities increasingly represents a response to structural demand rather than a speculative bet on land appreciation.
Location alone, however, is no longer sufficient.
Choucair said buyers are becoming increasingly sensitive to pricing, service quality, infrastructure, and financing costs. That shift changes the economics of development because projects must compete on affordability and execution rather than simply relying on the scarcity of land in desirable locations.
Saudi Arabia’s real estate market has shown a divergence between pricing and liquidity during 2026. Transaction volumes and values in Riyadh declined during parts of the year, while the issuance of new mortgage contracts remained weaker than at the peak of the previous cycle.
Performance has also varied within the residential market itself. Some apartment categories have faced pricing pressure, while villas in selected locations have demonstrated greater resilience.
For Samer Choucair, this divergence reinforces the importance of disciplined project economics.
The Al Jawharah development’s approximately 3,300 units across more than 131,000 square meters will ultimately be judged by the pricing of its first phase and its ability to deliver genuine value relative to cost, including parks, infrastructure, nearby services, and delivery schedules that can be supported by financing.
Land Is Becoming an Operating Asset
Choucair also pointed to the impact of Saudi Arabia’s White Land Tax in encouraging landowners either to develop their holdings or exit them.
As a result, land located within an approved masterplan is increasingly becoming an operating asset rather than simply a store of value.
The three funds effectively test that transition by converting land within an established masterplan into residential inventory available for sale instead of allowing the underlying property to remain dormant.
Samer Choucair said the gap between earnings growth and equity-market valuations demonstrates that investors continue to apply a discount to real estate developers following weaker sector liquidity. New transactions will therefore test whether the fund structure can help markets reprice future growth.
Al Ramz’s repeated launch of real estate funds during 2026 is also turning the model into a potentially repeatable platform. Land enters the fund, the developer generates development and marketing fees, and investors ultimately depend on the successful sale of the project over a multi-year development cycle.
“This structure redistributes risk across the real estate value chain,” Samer Choucair said.
The developer transfers part of the cost and risk associated with holding land into a structured investment vehicle. The asset manager expands its alternative-investment offering, while the end buyer enters through off-plan sales, potentially benefiting from early-phase pricing.
Off-Plan Sales Become a Capital-Financing Engine
Sales for the project are scheduled to begin in the first quarter of 2027 under Saudi Arabia’s off-plan sales framework, making the coming period an important test of the project’s ability to attract genuine end-user demand.
By September 2026, the number of off-plan projects across the Kingdom had exceeded approximately 800, representing close to SAR 750 billion in value. The scale illustrates how off-plan sales have evolved into a major channel for financing Saudi real estate development.
Samer Choucair said the success of the new funds should not be measured by the size of their headline valuation alone.
More meaningful indicators will include inventory turnover, pricing discipline, reservation rates during the first months of sales, and whether buyer payments are linked effectively to actual construction milestones.
Higher mortgage costs represent one of the most important risks. If real wage growth continues to lag residential property prices, the sales cycle could lengthen and project margins could come under pressure.
The concentration of new project launches in Riyadh also increases competitive pressure, forcing developers to differentiate projects through pricing, quality, community infrastructure, and execution.
On the other hand, a gradual improvement in financing costs, continued non-oil economic growth, job creation in Riyadh, and expansion of professionally developed housing supply could support absorption across the first phases of integrated residential projects.
Institutional Capital Is Changing Its Real Estate Strategy
Samer Choucair said smart capital increasingly prefers exposure through structured vehicles with transparent governance rather than direct purchases of undeveloped land on the outskirts of major cities.
Saudi real estate investment is therefore becoming increasingly linked to the intersection between public policy and the credit cycle.
White Land Tax policies, homeownership programs, off-plan sales regulation, financing conditions, and the gradual opening of the market to non-Saudi buyers are collectively reshaping how investors assess residential real estate opportunities.
This represents an important evolution in the market.
During a land-driven cycle, returns can depend heavily on scarcity and appreciation. In a development-driven cycle, returns increasingly depend on execution, construction costs, financing, sales velocity, pricing discipline, and the developer’s ability to create a product that buyers actually want and can afford.
For institutional capital, that distinction changes the investment framework from one centered primarily on asset appreciation to one centered on return on invested capital and cash-flow generation.
The Real Test Begins in 2027
Samer Choucair said the ultimate investment case is no longer simply about owning land.
“The land itself is no longer the entire story,” he said. “The story is now about capital allocation between a major asset manager and a listed developer within a masterplan that responds to a national housing policy.”
The real returns from the strategy, he added, will become clearer after 2027 as sales begin and units move toward delivery.
That means investors should increasingly evaluate Saudi residential development through operating metrics rather than headline land values alone. Sales velocity, absorption rates, construction progress, financing costs, margins, cash conversion, and the quality of completed communities will become increasingly important measures of investment performance.
For Samer Choucair, the broader direction of the Saudi property market is becoming increasingly clear: capital is moving away from passive exposure to undeveloped land and toward structured vehicles capable of converting property into functioning residential communities.
As Choucair summarized it, the next phase of Saudi real estate will increasingly be defined by “communities that are sold and delivered, not land that is hoarded and repeatedly repriced.”