Samer Choucair: Saudi Oil Export Value Jumps Despite Lower Volumes, Creating a Critical Paradox for Investors
Investment leader Samer Choucair said Saudi Arabia’s export data for the first half of 2026 reveals an important paradox for investors. The value of petroleum exports increased by 10.6% to approximately SAR 434.4 billion ($115.8 billion), compared with around SAR 392.6 billion during the same period in 2025, even as average crude exports declined to 5.109 million barrels per day, from 6.145 million barrels per day a year earlier.
Samer Choucair explained that the increase in export value does not necessarily indicate an expansion in Saudi Arabia’s export capacity. Instead, it benefited significantly from higher oil prices, making the analysis of underlying cash flows increasingly important rather than relying on nominal revenue figures alone.
June provides a clear example. Petroleum exports reached approximately SAR 63.18 billion, down 2.3% year-on-year, while total merchandise exports declined by 4.5% to SAR 87.76 billion.
Choucair noted that oil’s share of total exports increased to 72% in June, but this was not the result of a structural expansion in petroleum exports. Rather, non-oil exports contracted at a faster rate. Non-oil exports, including re-exports, fell by 9.7%, while national non-oil exports declined by 11.4%.
According to Choucair, disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have also changed how investors should value alternative infrastructure. Wood Mackenzie data showed crude shipments through Yanbu reaching approximately 4.07 million barrels per day in March, before declining to around 2.39 million barrels per day in June, a 41% drop from the March peak.
Samer Choucair said the central investment lesson is that the value of the oil itself is no longer enough. The ability to transport each barrel and reliably deliver it to international markets has become part of the valuation of the asset.
That shift could support a repricing of infrastructure connected to pipelines, ports, logistics services, and alternative export corridors as investors place greater value on assets capable of providing resilience when traditional energy routes are disrupted.
For institutional investors, this creates a more complex picture. Higher oil prices can increase the monetary value of exports even when physical volumes decline, but that does not necessarily translate into a sustainable improvement in underlying export capacity. Investors therefore need to distinguish between price-driven revenue growth and volume-driven structural growth.
Choucair said logistics resilience has consequently become increasingly important to the Saudi investment case. Infrastructure capable of reducing dependence on vulnerable maritime chokepoints can carry strategic value beyond its immediate transportation capacity, particularly during periods of elevated geopolitical risk.
Samer Choucair concluded that institutional investors should not interpret the increase in Saudi petroleum export value as a trend guaranteed to continue. Instead, portfolios should be positioned for two possible scenarios: a normalization of maritime conditions that allows export volumes to recover, or a prolonged period of geopolitical risk that increases the value of assets providing logistical flexibility.
Under either scenario, Choucair said Saudi Arabia’s ability to expand its non-oil exports will remain a critical measure of the sustainability of the Kingdom’s broader economic transformation. Higher oil revenues can strengthen near-term financial capacity, but the longer-term investment story will ultimately depend on whether diversification translates into durable growth in non-oil trade and internationally competitive industries.