Samer Choucair: Asian Gas Reprices Energy Security and Puts the Gulf to a New Test
Investment expert Samer Choucair believes the sharp rise in spot liquefied natural gas prices in Asia reflects a shift in how energy security is being priced, not merely a temporary price wave, amid continued disruption in supplies coming from the Gulf and a declining ability of Asian buyers to fully rely on Qatari cargoes.
The Japan Korea Marker for LNG registered around $22.61 per million British thermal units on August 20, up nearly 98% year over year, while European TTF gas prices approached $22.4, compared with only about $2.8 for U.S. Henry Hub gas. This gap reflects a rising value placed on exportable gas and logistical flexibility amid disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Samer Choucair notes that India has become one of the markets most exposed to this shift, after Petronet LNG faced uncertainty over Qatari supply for September. The company announced that force majeure disruptions have so far affected 56 Qatari cargoes, prompting India to seek alternatives from the United States, Oman, Nigeria, and Angola.
Trade data shows Qatar represented about 42% of India's LNG imports in 2024, while India's total imports reached about 25.6 million tons in 2025, underscoring the importance of the Indian market for any reshuffling of Asian gas trade.
Choucair said an institutional investor shouldn't read rising prices as merely an opportunity for gas producers, but as a full repricing of supply chains. The most attractive assets, he explained, are those that offer diversification across gas sources and shipping routes, from regasification and storage terminals to transport fleets and long term contracts with high flexibility.
Choucair adds that the Gulf retains its position as a major supplier, but the advantage of low production costs is no longer enough on its own, since delivery reliability and alternative export routes have become essential elements in evaluating new contracts and investments.
Samer Choucair believes that if the crisis continues through the end of 2026, it could push Asian buyers to further diversify their contracts and sources, while creating opportunities for American gas companies and suppliers able to provide flexible cargoes, as well as for investments tied to infrastructure located outside maritime chokepoints.
Choucair concludes that the most important investment lesson from the Asian gas crisis is that supply security has become part of the price of the commodity itself, and that an investor who fails to build logistical and geopolitical risk costs into their valuation model may end up overestimating an asset's true return.