Samer Choucair: Record LNG Prices Reprice Energy Security and Capital Flows
Investment expert Samer Choucair said that Indian state energy companies returning to the spot market for liquefied natural gas, at prices exceeding $23 per million British thermal units for September cargoes, the highest import levels since the 2022 shock, reflected a shift in the very concept of energy security.
Choucair explained that the driver wasn't ordinary consumer demand but securing gas for fertilizer plants amid disrupted Qatari supply and restricted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, coinciding with European competition for cargoes and European gas prices climbing to a five month high.
Choucair noted that India, the world's fourth largest LNG importer, had relied on Qatar for about 40 to 45 percent of its imports, with a high combined share from Qatar and the UAE, before the Ras Laffan attacks in March, the declaration of force majeure, and the shrinking of tanker transit through Hormuz since late February pushed Qatari supply down to near nothing in April and May. U.S. supply, by contrast, exceeded 40 percent of May imports by some readings, with Oman, Nigeria, and Angola also rising.
From contracts to the spot market
Samer Choucair said India's equation shifted from long term contracts linked to Henry Hub or oil, plus a marginal spot market, to a forced spot auction. The price climbed from earlier contractual levels near $13 to around $25 at the height of the panic, before settling above $20.
Choucair added that India paid about $353 million extra in March and April despite lower volumes, after import costs rose more than 20 percent, while its net oil and gas import bill jumped 43 percent between April and July to about $57.8 billion. The share of imported gas in fertilizer consumption rose to around 85 percent, while fertilizer subsidies for the coming fiscal year stand at 1.71 trillion rupees, a bill that could reach 2.4 to 3.3 trillion rupees if the disruption continues.
Asia and Europe compete for gas
Samer Choucair explained that the competition has become one between two budgets. European gas storage stood at around 61 percent in mid August, compared with 74 percent a year earlier, with Germany nearing 50 percent, while September TTF contracts exceeded 65 euros per megawatt hour, and the JKM index moved near $23, compared with Henry Hub at around $2.8.
Choucair said: "That $23 isn't just a gas price, it's the price of a sovereign option against a food and power disruption," adding that the market rewards whoever holds the flexibility to redirect cargoes and diversify supply sources.
The Gulf shifts from production to trading
Samer Choucair pointed to American exporters, liquefaction projects, tankers, marine insurance, and trading platforms benefiting from the spread between Henry Hub and JKM, while Oman, Nigeria, and Angola emerged as alternatives. He added that Qatar remains a long term pillar, but the crisis exposed the risks of concentrating on a single source and a single corridor.
Choucair noted that Aramco's trading arm sold cargoes to South Asia, including one to Bangladesh near $23.93 per million BTU, while ADNOC strengthened its Asian flexibility. He considers that value is shifting from owning gas to the ability to redirect a cargo and manage maritime risk.
Where is capital heading?
Samer Choucair said investors are focusing on four tracks: American liquefaction projects and related infrastructure, trading companies and Asian and Gulf gas platforms, Indian fixed income instruments affected by subsidies and inflation, and long term contracts, which may look cheap against a spot price above $20 but turn into a burden if Qatari and American supply return strongly in 2027.
Choucair warned that persistently high prices could pressure fertilizers, electricity, and industry, and push up subsidies and financing needs, while receiving terminals, transmission and shipping lines, coal, and power generators could benefit. Regionally, he believes Gulf assets located outside Hormuz gain greater diversification value.
Strategy after the Hormuz shock
Samer Choucair emphasized that capital allocation shouldn't rest on a single scenario, but on three possibilities: a resolution within two quarters, continued disruption through a full heating season, or a structural adjustment stretching over three years.
Samer Choucair concluded that energy security has become an independent investment asset, and that future value will lie not just in owning gas, but in owning supply flexibility, storage, trading capability, fleet capacity, and convertible contracts. If the disruption continues through winter, Asian prices could stay historically elevated, while a return of shipping and Qatari loadings could quickly compress the premium, making the true winner the investor who built a portfolio able to withstand both scenarios.