Samer Choucair: Gold Is Becoming a Strategic Asset in Capital Allocation
Investment leader Samer Choucair said continued institutional capital flows into gold, alongside growing interest among individuals and hobbyists in discovering and recovering the metal, reflect a broadening demand base for gold as a hedging and wealth-preservation asset in 2026.
Choucair noted that gold reached levels near $4,376 per ounce in mid-August 2026, with annual gains exceeding 30%, supported by central-bank purchases and sustained investment demand in Asia.
He said interest in gold is no longer limited to sovereign wealth funds and asset managers, but has expanded to individual and informal exploration and recovery activities, highlighting the broader appeal of gold as a store of value.
According to Choucair, institutional investors are increasingly seeking highly liquid assets capable of preserving value through volatile interest-rate cycles. Gold, he said, increasingly meets that requirement, with capital allocation decisions becoming more closely tied to monetary-policy expectations and fiscal deficits in developed economies.
Central Banks Continue to Support Demand
Samer Choucair said structural support for gold prices rests on several factors, led by continued central-bank accumulation of the metal.
He noted that the World Gold Council expects official-sector demand to remain strong during the second half of 2026, although potentially at slightly lower levels than the previous year’s peak.
Investment demand is also increasing through over-the-counter markets and across Asia, while Western ETF flows remain more sensitive to real bond yields and the strength of the dollar.
Choucair said higher gold prices are weighing on jewelry demand in some markets, but have not yet triggered a major production response from miners or a significant increase in recycling. Combined with limited supply and persistent institutional demand, this creates a supportive environment for prices over the medium term.
He added that gold could move higher if economic conditions deteriorate or expectations for interest-rate cuts return.
Gold Moves to the Core of Capital Allocation
Samer Choucair said institutional flows into gold reflect a shift in market psychology away from complete reliance on traditional dollar-linked assets toward more diversified portfolios in which precious metals play a central role in risk management.
Gold, he argued, is no longer merely a tactical hedge for asset managers and sovereign funds. It is increasingly becoming part of long-term capital-allocation strategies, particularly amid elevated government debt levels and growing investor demand for real assets as an alternative to currency exposure.
Choucair added that institutional allocations to gold and gold-related equities remain relatively modest compared with the metal’s strong performance, potentially leaving room for increased exposure.
Opportunities Across the Mining Sector
Samer Choucair said higher gold prices benefit low-cost gold producers, while higher-cost miners face greater pressure on margins if prices stabilize or decline.
He noted that rising real yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, making the relationship between the metal, interest rates, the dollar and official-sector demand a crucial factor in investment decisions.
Successful gold strategies in 2026, he said, will therefore depend on selectivity within the mining sector and exposure to metal-backed instruments in markets with structural growth, rather than relying on short-term tactical approaches.
The Gulf and Vision 2030
Samer Choucair said gold has gained additional importance in the Gulf amid economic-diversification efforts, particularly in Saudi Arabia, where precious-metals investment and mining align with Vision 2030’s objectives of reducing dependence on oil and strengthening strategic reserves.
He said the Public Investment Fund and other sovereign entities could view gold as a complement to strategies involving energy, infrastructure and manufacturing, particularly given the need for liquid assets capable of preserving value through volatile oil-price cycles.
Growing interest in gold could also support mining, exploration and the development of local jewelry and related industrial value chains.
Higher prices, he added, may increase the attractiveness of listed mining companies and businesses with indirect exposure to precious metals on the Saudi Exchange.
Risks and Scenarios
Samer Choucair identified several key risks, including persistently higher real dollar yields, a sharp decline in official-sector demand, or a significant improvement in risk appetite that could push investors away from defensive assets.
Conversely, continued geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty, ongoing central-bank purchases and stronger Asian participation remain supportive factors. A clear new catalyst could potentially push gold beyond its current trading range.
In his base case, Choucair expects gold to remain within a moderately volatile range during the second half of 2026, with the possibility of moving higher if economic growth weakens or monetary-policy expectations shift.
Over the longer term, he expects gold to remain supported by reserve diversification, geopolitical tensions and elevated public debt.
Gold as a Wealth-Preservation Tool
Samer Choucair concluded that gold will remain an important component of resilient institutional and sovereign portfolios designed to generate risk-adjusted returns across economic cycles.
He emphasized the importance of being selective in gaining exposure to the metal—whether through physical gold, equities or structured products—while closely monitoring central-bank activity and real yields.
The investment case for gold, Choucair said, is increasingly less about timing the next price move and more about understanding its role within a broader capital-allocation strategy. With official and investment demand remaining strong, gold is likely to retain its position as one of the key tools for wealth preservation and risk diversification well beyond 2026.