Samer Choucair: $12.6 Billion Ignites the Quantum Race—but Investment Discipline Will Decide the Winners
Investment strategist Samer Choucair said the record flow of capital into quantum technologies during 2025 confirms that the sector is gradually moving from a research-and-development phase toward the development of commercial applications.
At the same time, he argued, the surge requires institutional investors to distinguish between measurable technological progress and investment narratives that are running ahead of the underlying facts.
According to the latest McKinsey report, investments in quantum-technology startups exceeded $12.6 billion in 2025, representing a 6.3-fold increase from the previous year. The ten largest deals accounted for approximately $7.6 billion, or nearly 60% of total deal value, highlighting the significant concentration of capital among a relatively small number of companies.
Global quantum-computing companies also generated more than $1 billion in revenue in 2025, with revenue projected to reach $4.4 billion by 2028. Meanwhile, the potential economic value of quantum computing is estimated at up to $2.7 trillion by 2035.
Growth Does Not Mean Maturity
Samer Choucair said these figures do not mean that quantum technology has become a mature market.
Rather, they indicate an acceleration of investment in building technological capabilities and commercial applications.
He said institutional investors should focus on the quality of scientific and engineering teams, progress in error correction and scalability, the strength of strategic partnerships, and—most importantly—a realistic pathway from technology to revenue.
Choucair noted that the concentration of roughly 60% of major deal value in just ten transactions demonstrates that capital is becoming increasingly selective.
Companies capable of demonstrating both technological and commercial progress are attracting the majority of funding, while earlier-stage companies remain more exposed to volatility and valuations that may not accurately reflect their underlying capabilities.
Beware of Investment Hype
Choucair warned investors against making decisions based on unreliable recommendations circulating on social media or promises of extraordinary returns over short periods.
He noted that warnings from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission have highlighted how social media can be used to promote pump-and-dump schemes targeting individual investors.
For institutional capital, he argued, the appropriate approach is therefore to prioritize independent technical due diligence and evidence of actual technological progress rather than market enthusiasm alone.
The Opportunity Extends Beyond Quantum Computers
Samer Choucair said the most attractive long-term opportunities may not be limited to companies developing quantum computers themselves.
They could also extend to the broader ecosystem, including:
Quantum infrastructure
Advanced cooling systems
Quantum software
Cybersecurity
Quantum communications
Hybrid computing solutions connecting quantum systems with conventional computing infrastructure
This broader approach, he said, could allow investors to gain exposure to the growth of the quantum ecosystem without concentrating all their risk on a single hardware technology.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
In Saudi Arabia and the wider Gulf region, Choucair believes investment in quantum capabilities could intersect with national strategies for economic diversification, artificial intelligence, advanced computing, cybersecurity and energy.
However, he emphasized that such investments should be supported by independent technical assessment, rigorous governance and diversified risk exposure.
The region could potentially benefit not only by investing in quantum companies, but also by developing the infrastructure, research capabilities and industrial partnerships required to support future quantum applications.
Investment Discipline Will Determine the Winners
Samer Choucair concluded that quantum technologies could become one of the largest long-term technology opportunities, but simply directing more capital toward the sector will not create value by itself.
The decisive factor, he argued, will be the ability to identify scalable technologies and companies capable of turning scientific breakthroughs into sustainable products and recurring revenues.
In other words, the quantum investment race may be accelerating but for institutional investors, the real competitive advantage will be knowing which breakthroughs are commercially real and which are still just expensive promises.