Samer Choucair: Increased Property Supply Is Redirecting Capital Toward Productive Assets in Saudi Arabia
Entrepreneur Samer Choucair said the entry of approximately 19 million square metres of undeveloped land in the Madinah region into development or trading represents an important sign of accelerating transformation in Saudi Arabia’s real estate market.
He noted that the move is reshaping capital allocation toward productive assets and supporting a transition away from holding land for speculative purposes toward developing projects capable of generating sustainable economic and operational value.
Samer Choucair explained that the Ministry of Municipalities and Housing’s announcement that these areas had entered the development and trading cycle demonstrates the effectiveness of the White Land Fees system in increasing property supply and improving the use of land within urban boundaries.
This is aligned with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030 to increase home ownership among citizens and improve quality of life.
Choucair noted that the new areas include approximately 12 million square metres of fully developed land, two million square metres that have entered the trading stage, and a further five million square metres currently under development.
These areas will support nine residential and development projects while strengthening infrastructure in one of Saudi Arabia’s most important cities from both economic and religious perspectives.
Samer Choucair added that this transformation creates an important opportunity to redirect capital toward income-generating property assets and could alter the balance between supply and demand in Madinah’s real estate market during the coming period.
He explained that land markets in Saudi Arabia’s principal cities are undergoing a structural transformation driven by regulatory policies intended to discourage the holding of unused land and stimulate development within urban areas.
The experience of Madinah forms part of a broader trend affecting other major cities, with approximately 71 million square metres entering development or trading in Riyadh, 146 million square metres in the Eastern Province, and 28 million square metres in Makkah.
Choucair emphasized that these figures demonstrate the ability of the White Land Fees system to transform idle assets into active urban projects, particularly as Saudi Arabia experiences rapid urban growth supported by major developments in hospitality, housing, logistics, and the knowledge economy.
Samer Choucair noted that the White Land Fees system is a public-policy instrument designed to redirect resources toward the most efficient use of urban land.
Revenue generated by the fees in Madinah has already contributed to nine residential and development projects, helping finance infrastructure and municipal services.
He added that this approach is consistent with the Housing Program under Saudi Vision 2030, which focuses on increasing residential supply and reducing pricing pressures caused by property speculation, thereby supporting higher levels of home ownership among Saudi families.
Choucair explained that the current development reflects the continuation of Saudi economic policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, particularly amid a global environment characterized by challenges involving interest rates, inflation, and financing costs.
Samer Choucair noted that increasing the supply of developed land could reduce cost pressures on developers and consumers over the medium term, especially as construction activity and urban expansion continue across different regions of the Kingdom.
Demand remains supported by structural factors, including population growth, the expansion of religious tourism, and foreign direct investment flows associated with major development projects.
He emphasized that Madinah possesses a distinctive investment profile combining sustained religious demand with expanding economic opportunities.
Major projects in the region, including Knowledge Economic City, hospitality-development initiatives, and logistics infrastructure, are creating continued demand for developed land and integrated projects.
Choucair added that bringing 19 million square metres into the development cycle increases the city’s capacity to accommodate this demand and reduces supply constraints that previously affected the market, particularly given the need to expand residential, hotel, and service capacity.
“This momentum reflects a change in landowners’ behaviour, from holding land as a speculative asset to transforming it into an income-generating or tradable asset,” Samer Choucair said.
“Institutional investors are closely monitoring how the increase in supply translates into opportunities across residential and commercial development, particularly in cities with permanent demand such as Madinah, where religious significance intersects with economic growth.”
Samer Choucair explained that the timing of market entry has become a central factor in real estate investment decisions.
A gradual increase in supply could lead to limited price corrections in certain segments, while strategically located sites near central districts and major projects are likely to remain attractive.
He noted that sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, and private equity funds regard these developments as evidence of the increasing maturity of Saudi Arabia’s land market.
Greater trading activity in undeveloped land creates opportunities for acquisitions and new development partnerships, particularly with supporting systems such as Etmam, the Real Estate Developers Services Centre, which provides digital processes to accelerate procedures and licensing.
Choucair added that directing fee revenue toward infrastructure projects strengthens the economic and social returns generated by property assets and increases Madinah’s appeal to long-term investors seeking opportunities connected to the diversification of the Saudi economy beyond oil.
“Capital allocation at this stage should focus on developers capable of delivering integrated projects combining housing with commercial and tourism services, rather than speculating on undeveloped land,” Samer Choucair said.
He added that the market could experience greater capital flows into real estate investment trusts and Tadawul-listed companies with developable land portfolios.
Merger and acquisition activity across the sector could also increase as more land enters the economic cycle.
Choucair explained that certain property segments may face pressure during the next phase, particularly landowners who prefer to retain undeveloped plots.
Higher fees may force them to choose between development and sale, potentially increasing liquidity in the secondary market and affecting the valuations of certain property portfolios.
Samer Choucair noted that the principal investment opportunities will be concentrated in construction, building materials, property finance, and housing-related services, alongside tourism and hospitality, which will benefit from the availability of additional land supporting an expansion in Madinah’s hotel capacity.
He emphasized that this trend supports the objectives of improving urban productivity and quality of life, both of which are central pillars of Saudi Vision 2030.
At the same time, he stressed the importance of managing the timing of development to ensure that supply growth remains aligned with the market’s actual capacity to absorb new projects.
Choucair added that potential risks include the possibility that development could advance faster than local demand in certain areas, resulting in temporary price corrections.
Some market segments are also sensitive to changes in the number of visitors, Umrah pilgrims, and Hajj pilgrims.
However, these risks remain limited by proactive government policies and strong structural demand supported by demographic, economic, and religious factors.
Samer Choucair emphasized that the continued implementation of the White Land Fees system will drive further changes in the structure of property supply across Saudi Arabia’s major cities in the years ahead.
He expects institutional capital to continue flowing toward opportunities combining operating income with long-term urban growth.
“Investors building positions today on the basis of structural supply-and-demand analysis, while focusing on governance and execution quality, will be better placed to benefit from the next growth cycle in the Saudi economy,” Samer Choucair concluded.
Choucair emphasized that the latest figures for Madinah are not merely statistical data, but evidence of a broader restructuring of Saudi Arabia’s real estate capital market, as attention gradually shifts from land speculation toward value-added investment and sustainable development.