Samer Choucair: Libya’s Energy Gap Is Creating a New Market for Egyptian Infrastructure Companies
Investment leader Samer Choucair said the agreement between Egyptian infrastructure company Madkour and Libya’s General Electricity Company to develop three power plants with a combined capacity of 660 megawatts and investments of approximately €100 million over 18 months goes beyond the significance of a conventional mid-sized construction contract.
With Bahrain-based Bank ABC participating in financing part of the projects, Choucair said the transaction represents a broader test of whether Egyptian and Gulf capital can transform Libya’s electricity deficit into financeable infrastructure assets.
That question is becoming increasingly important as Egypt studies plans to expand its electricity interconnection capacity with Libya to approximately 2,000 megawatts through a new transmission line stretching roughly 200 kilometers, with estimated investment of around EGP 10 billion.
For Samer Choucair, the investment thesis is therefore larger than three individual power stations. It concerns whether a persistent infrastructure deficit can be converted into a repeatable model for cross-border capital deployment.
The Electricity Deficit Becomes an Investment Opportunity
Choucair said the significance of the transaction lies not only in the three new plants but also in the underlying condition of Libya’s electricity system, which has suffered for years from operational and maintenance weaknesses.
Data from Libya’s Audit Bureau showed that 14 power plants were operating at approximately 36% of their effective capacity, while load shedding across most regions reached around six hours per day, according to its 2024 report.
Samer Choucair said those figures illustrate a fundamental investment point: value is not created simply by adding nominal generation capacity.
The larger opportunity lies in increasing plant availability, improving transmission and distribution efficiency, and integrating new generation projects into a broader infrastructure cycle encompassing maintenance, rehabilitation, grid modernization, and supporting electrical equipment.
For investors, this means Libya’s power shortage could eventually produce a wider addressable market than generation alone.
Egypt Is Redefining Electricity as an Exportable Asset
Choucair said Cairo is no longer treating Libya as a marginal export market for electricity.
Egypt increased electricity supplies to Libya to 100 megawatts in July 2026 following a major grid failure, alongside settlements of outstanding financial obligations.
The more strategically significant development, according to Samer Choucair, is the potential expansion of the Egypt-Libya interconnection to approximately 2,000 megawatts through a 500-kilovolt transmission line and the expansion of the Marsa Matrouh substation.
That would make domestic Libyan generation and Egyptian cross-border interconnection complementary rather than competing investments.
New Libyan plants could strengthen local generating capacity, while an expanded interconnection could transform Egypt’s surplus electricity generation into a regional export channel.
From an investment perspective, this begins to redefine electricity from a predominantly domestic utility service into a potentially exportable infrastructure asset.
Financing Is the Real Test
“The institutional market does not buy the reconstruction narrative,” Samer Choucair said. “It buys the contractor’s ability to convert a contract into collectible cash flows.”
That distinction is central to the transaction.
Bank ABC’s participation, whether through direct financing or letters of guarantee, introduces a cross-border banking layer to the project. Choucair cautioned, however, that commercial bank participation should not automatically be interpreted as equivalent to a comprehensive sovereign guarantee.
The transaction potentially opens several channels for capital simultaneously.
Egyptian contractors gain access to projects capable of generating hard-currency revenues. Gulf banks can test financing structures for infrastructure projects across North Africa. Turbine, transmission, and electrical-equipment suppliers, meanwhile, gain exposure to a market characterized by a structural shortage of reliable electricity infrastructure.
The investment opportunity therefore extends beyond the initial contractor. It can spread through financing, equipment, engineering, maintenance, transmission, and other parts of the power-sector value chain.
660 Megawatts Will Not Close the Gap
Samer Choucair said adding 660 megawatts will not solve Libya’s electricity crisis, but it could improve the system’s reserve margin if the plants enter service on schedule.
The 18-month execution period will therefore become a critical benchmark for investors.
Successful delivery would provide evidence that the model can be repeated on larger projects. Delays, by contrast, could reinforce concerns surrounding the ability to convert infrastructure demand into bankable and operational assets.
Choucair said the principal risks remain institutional fragmentation, delayed payments, weaknesses in the electricity grid, and volatility in fuel supply.
He described the investment equation as a trade-off between a “liquidity premium and a political-risk premium.”
Investors willing and able to absorb collection and payment risk may be compensated with higher returns. But ignoring the underlying weaknesses of the electricity network could leave investors financing generation assets that cannot operate efficiently or monetize their capacity.
In other words, the presence of demand does not by itself guarantee the quality of an infrastructure investment.
A Strategic Investment Outlook
Samer Choucair concluded that institutional capital in 2026 is not looking for a “Libya story.” It is looking for a collection mechanism within the Libya story.
Execution discipline, payment structures, and progress on the Egyptian interconnection project will therefore be more important than headline capacity figures alone.
If those elements work together, Choucair believes the Madkour transaction could evolve from an isolated contract into a replicable investment model connecting Egyptian engineering capacity, Gulf financing, and Libya’s infrastructure requirements.
“The real opportunity is not in exaggerating the significance of 660 megawatts,” Choucair said. “It is in recognizing that North Africa’s electricity deficit is beginning to evolve into a priceable asset class: relatively short-cycle, high-risk, and open to capital capable of balancing Cairo, Manama, and Tripoli without confusing national necessity with investment security.”
For Samer Choucair, that distinction ultimately determines whether Libya’s electricity deficit remains an infrastructure problem or becomes an investable market.