Samer Choucair: Pipelines and Alternative Ports Are Becoming Strategic Assets After the Hormuz Crisis
Investment leader Samer Choucair said data from Kpler showed that the Strait of Hormuz recorded 2,485 vessel transits between the beginning of March and August 18, 2026, with only 735 of those movements using the route imposed by Tehran, representing 29.6% of total traffic.
Choucair added that June, which saw the strongest recovery in maritime activity since the war began in late February, recorded use of the Iranian route in just 19.8% of transits, the lowest share since the conflict started.
He explained that these figures did not represent a return to pre-war conditions. Traffic remained significantly below previous levels, when roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, equivalent to about one-fifth of global oil supply, passed through the strait, alongside an average of approximately 130 vessels per day.
Choucair said 57.5% of all transits through mid-August were classified as dark or of unknown routing, compared with 7% through the Omani route and 5.8% through the central route recognized by the International Maritime Organization.
Traffic Recovered, but Control Did Not
Samer Choucair said that among 1,097 recorded entries into Gulf waters, 34% used the Iranian route while 58.2% were classified as dark movements.
He argued that Tehran succeeded in raising the cost of passage and increasing perceived navigation risk, but failed to make its preferred route the sustainably dominant corridor.
According to Choucair, June exposed the contradiction particularly clearly. Total transits increased to 752 from 355 in April, yet the Iranian route was used only 149 times, while 59.6% of movements were classified as dark and 14.4% used the Omani route.
At the same time, Iranian oil exports declined from approximately 893,000 barrels per day before the blockade to around 156,000 barrels per day by August 17.
The War Premium Is Moving Into the Cost of Capital
Samer Choucair said institutional markets have interpreted the shift through an accounting lens rather than a political one.
The central question is no longer who “controls” the Strait of Hormuz, but which flows can be tracked, insured, and repriced efficiently within shipping contracts.
Choucair said the fact that unreported or dark transit activity exceeded half of total movement effectively transferred geopolitical risk into the working-capital costs of energy, shipping, and insurance companies.
He added that Brent crude averaged approximately $93 per barrel between March and August, its highest six-month average since late 2022, before easing to around $85 in late August as markets began pricing the possibility of a temporary corridor brokered by Oman.
Additional studies estimated that the disruption added hundreds of billions of dollars to fossil-fuel import costs over six months, while the war premium in prices declined more quickly than physical barrels returned to the market.
Choucair said war-risk insurance premiums rose to between 4% and 10%, depending on the period and vessel type, while very large crude carriers generated record earnings, with daily charter rates reaching several hundred thousand dollars.
In his view, the disruption redistributed profitability away from the producer alone and toward shipping companies and insurers.
Saudi Arabia Is Repricing the Value of Alternatives
Samer Choucair said the key investment question is no longer, “When will Hormuz reopen?”
Instead, the question is how much of an energy and logistics portfolio should remain exposed to a single chokepoint.
He said investors are increasingly distinguishing between the ability to produce hydrocarbons, the ability to export them, and the ability to insure the route used to deliver them.
Saudi Arabia’s East–West Pipeline, or Petroline, with capacity of up to 7 million barrels per day, has therefore shifted from being viewed primarily as a contingency asset to becoming a strategically important operating asset.
Choucair said expansion of the system by an additional 1 million to 2 million barrels per day is under consideration, while sustainable loading capacity at Yanbu remains around 4.5 million to 5 million barrels per day.
The United Arab Emirates similarly benefits from the Habshan–Fujairah pipeline, while Oman has emerged as an increasingly important maritime and logistics hub.
Beneficiaries and Investment Risks
Choucair said oil and gas markets will continue to carry risk premiums, particularly Qatar’s liquefied natural gas sector, which remains geographically more dependent on the Strait of Hormuz.
Global inventories are estimated to be running below prior benchmarks by close to one billion barrels on a broad basis, increasing the sensitivity of energy markets to disruptions.
Shipping and insurance companies have benefited from higher pricing, while the strategic value of infrastructure has become much more visible.
That includes expansion of the Saudi East–West system, Fujairah and Yanbu infrastructure, connections through the SUMED pipeline, as well as storage, refining, satellite vessel tracking, dark-shipping detection platforms, and sanctions-compliance technologies.
Samer Choucair cautioned that investors must distinguish carefully between a rise in vessel counts and a genuine recovery in commercial flows.
A temporary corridor could collapse if escalation returns, insurance premiums may remain elevated even after spot oil prices decline, and Houthi threats could reduce the strategic value of Red Sea alternatives.
These factors, he said, mean that redundancy cannot be evaluated simply by counting available routes. Investors must assess whether those routes are commercially viable, insurable, secure, and scalable during a prolonged disruption.
From Temporary Crisis to Permanent Valuation Variable
Choucair said a rapid de-escalation scenario would likely put pressure on tanker equities, while a condition of “fragile stability” would continue to support elevated returns for assets offering multiple export options.
He concluded that the Strait of Hormuz will remain a critical artery for global energy flows, but it can no longer be treated as the only strategic guarantee.
Capital is likely to continue moving toward alternative infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman, as well as shipping and insurance platforms capable of accurately pricing risk and data and compliance technologies capable of improving transparency.
Samer Choucair said export-route diversification has effectively become part of economic diversification itself.
Pipelines, ports, storage facilities, and regional connectivity will not only support Saudi Aramco’s operational resilience, but also complement Vision 2030 objectives in logistics, industry, and foreign investment.
Choucair said the “Hormuz premium” has evolved from a temporary market event expected to disappear with a ceasefire into a permanent variable in valuation models.
For investors, pricing that premium early is not a bet on when the war will end.
It is a bet on the structure of global trade after the crisis demonstrated that control over a strategic maritime chokepoint has clear and measurable limits.