Samer Choucair: 51% Rise in Sellers U.S. Housing Market Tilts in Buyers” Favor
Investment expert Samer Choucair said the U.S. housing market is undergoing a clear shift in the balance of power in favor of buyers, though this shift does not mean a nationwide collapse in prices rather, it reflects a more fragmented market, split between regions facing a relative supply surplus and others still experiencing housing scarcity.
Choucair explained that Redfin's July data showed sellers outnumbering buyers by 51.3%, with around 966,800 active buyers against 1.46 million sellers — the lowest buyer count recorded in Redfin's time series. Nearly 80% of the largest U.S. urban markets have now tilted in buyers' favor, while Miami, Nashville, and several Texas cities topped the list of markets where buyers hold the greatest negotiating power.
Samer Choucair said: "The investment mistake is treating the U.S. housing market as a single market. Capital shouldn't move based on a national average, but according to days-on-market, inventory levels, discounts, and the cost of financing in each individual market."
Choucair noted that the rising cost of borrowing remains the main obstacle to buyers returning, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.65% for the week ending August 20, compared with 6.67% the previous week. Meanwhile, the latest available NAR data showed existing home inventory at 1.56 million units in June, equivalent to 4.6 months of supply, with the median existing home price up 1.8% year-over-year to $440,600.
He added that this situation creates selective opportunities for investors, particularly in markets where supply has accumulated due to a building wave, but he cautioned against conflating weaker seller leverage with the existence of a broad price discount.
He continued: "The smart investor isn't betting on a collapse of the U.S. housing market — they're looking for assets whose entry price has become more attractive because of longer selling times and higher incentives, while maintaining strict discipline on the cost of debt and holding period."
Samer Choucair believes that comparisons with Gulf markets should be based on risk-adjusted returns rather than price movement alone, noting that the Gulf investor faces a choice between seizing periodic discounts in specific U.S. markets and investing in markets with structural demand backed by population growth and major projects.
Samer Choucair concluded: "The market's shift in favor of buyers doesn't mean every home has become cheap; it means negotiation is back in the equation, and whoever succeeds in pricing location, financing, and timing correctly will find opportunities that don't show up in national averages."