Samer Choucair: Weight-Loss Drugs Open a New Investment Wave in Protein and Healthy Foods
Investment leader Samer Choucair said that the growing adoption of GLP-1 medications, including Ozempic, Wegovy, Mounjaro, and Zepbound, is beginning to reshape global food demand as these treatments expand beyond type 2 diabetes into mainstream weight management.
He explained that reduced appetite and lower calorie consumption are encouraging consumers to prioritize nutritional density and value per unit of consumption rather than simply purchasing larger quantities.
Choucair noted that U.S. households with at least one GLP-1 user reduced grocery spending by approximately 5.3% to 6% during the first six months, with the decline reaching 8% to 9% among higher-income households.
By mid-2026, an estimated 12% to 18% of U.S. adults were using these medications, while approximately 20% of households were estimated to include at least one user. Choucair estimated that the potential impact on U.S. household food sales during 2026 could range from $9 billion to $21 billion.
From Volume to Nutritional Density
Choucair said the shift is redirecting spending away from snacks, soft drinks, and ultra-processed products toward meat, fish, dairy, vegetables, and fruit.
Some studies have recorded declines of 6% to 11% in spending on chips, cookies, baked goods, soft drinks, and ice cream. At the same time, Greek yogurt, cottage cheese, eggs, salmon, and products rich in protein and fiber have become increasingly attractive.
Companies, Choucair added, are responding by reformulating products, reducing package sizes, increasing protein and fiber content, and launching products marketed as being “GLP-1 friendly.” Restaurants are likewise introducing smaller portions and higher-protein options.
Global Economic and Investment Impact
Choucair argued that spending does not necessarily fall by the same amount as consumption volumes because consumers may shift toward higher-quality, higher-priced products.
“This could turn lower volumes into an opportunity for margin improvement,” he said.
He also pointed to the possibility that the trend could contribute to lower obesity rates in some developed markets, potentially reducing healthcare costs and improving labor-market productivity.
Meanwhile, revenues at leading pharmaceutical companies continue to grow. Eli Lilly’s quarterly revenue, driven primarily by Mounjaro and Zepbound, exceeded expectations, while Novo Nordisk maintained a strong position through Wegovy and emerging oral formulations.
The broader GLP-1-linked obesity and diabetes drug market is expected to exceed $100 billion annually by the end of the decade.
Saudi Arabia and Vision 2030
Choucair said Saudi Arabia and the Gulf face a particularly significant opportunity. Estimates indicate that approximately 23% of adults in Saudi Arabia are obese, while 42% are overweight, with some forecasts projecting compound annual growth rates of more than 15% for the Saudi obesity-treatment market through 2030.
He said Vision 2030, with its emphasis on preventive healthcare and increased healthcare investment, has created a favorable environment for wider GLP-1 adoption and demand for supportive nutrition products.
Investment opportunities include locally produced protein- and fiber-rich foods, healthy consumer brands, domestic manufacturing, and efforts to reduce reliance on imports, supported by the National Investment Strategy and the Public Investment Fund.
Redirecting Capital
Choucair said sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, and private-equity investors are increasingly viewing leading GLP-1 companies, dairy and animal- and plant-based protein producers, and functional-food businesses as among the key beneficiaries.
Traditional snacks and sugary beverages, meanwhile, face volume pressure unless they successfully reposition their products.
Capital is also moving toward nutritional-formulation innovation, smaller packaging, and digital platforms connecting prescriptions with dietary recommendations, alongside opportunities for local and international partnerships across the Gulf and emerging markets.
Beyond 2026
Choucair expects the transformation to deepen through the remainder of the decade as GLP-1 adoption increases, prices potentially decline, and oral formulations become more widely available.
These developments could push food supply chains toward quality and nutritional density rather than volume, although risks remain, including treatment discontinuation and the potential return of previous consumption patterns, as well as intensifying competition within the pharmaceutical market.
Choucair concluded that the transformation is “not cyclical, but structural.”
Investors who account for declining demand for “empty calories” and rising demand for “effective nutrition,” he said, will be better positioned to capture emerging capital flows throughout 2026 and beyond.