Samer Choucair: El Niño Threatens Maritime Supply Chains and Is Reshaping the Food Investment Map
Investment strategist Samer Choucair said that early signals of an El Niño event in the Pacific are prompting a reassessment of climate risks affecting food supply chains and global markets. Satellite data, he explained, are revealing changes in ocean productivity that could affect global fish supplies and influence capital-allocation decisions across food and agricultural commodity markets.
Choucair noted that NASA observations from the PACE satellite in June 2026 showed a notable decline in chlorophyll concentrations compared with neutral conditions during the previous year. The decline points to reduced phytoplankton abundance and lower primary productivity in parts of the tropical Pacific.
He added that these changes could affect commercial fisheries, particularly off the western coast of the United States and in the eastern tropical Pacific, at a time when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center expects the event to remain strong into early 2027, with elevated odds of a very strong event.
Declining Ocean Productivity Puts Pressure on Food Chains
Samer Choucair explained that El Niño weakens tropical trade winds, allowing the warm surface layer of the ocean to deepen and reducing the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich water. This can reduce phytoplankton, which form the foundation of the marine food chain, with the effects gradually extending to zooplankton, commercial fish, seabirds, and marine mammals.
Choucair noted that strong El Niño events have historically been associated with sharp declines in anchovy fisheries off the coast of Peru, one of the world’s major sources of fishmeal. Peruvian authorities have repeatedly suspended fishing operations during 2026 in an effort to protect fish stocks.
Along the U.S. West Coast, he expects some cold-water species to move northward or into deeper waters, potentially reducing growth and reproduction rates, while warmer-water species such as tuna could become more abundant closer to the coast.
“These developments are no longer simply seasonal events. They are becoming part of the repricing of structural risk, as institutional investors increasingly incorporate climate factors into capital-allocation models, particularly in sectors dependent on natural resources,” Choucair said.
Food and Feed Supply Chains Under Pressure
Choucair emphasized that the impact of El Niño extends beyond fisheries themselves. Approximately two-thirds of U.S. seafood consumption depends on imports, including farmed seafood.
Any disruption to fishmeal supplies, he explained, could increase the cost of feed used in aquaculture, putting pressure on companies’ margins and potentially affecting the prices of certain seafood products in restaurants and retail markets.
The pressure could also spread to broader food commodity markets, particularly if marine effects from El Niño coincide with agricultural disruptions in other regions. Companies heavily dependent on marine supply chains could consequently face increased earnings pressure.
By contrast, Choucair believes companies with geographically diversified supply chains or investments in marine-monitoring technologies may be better positioned to absorb climate-related shocks.
The Gulf Reassesses Food Security
Samer Choucair said the potential impact is particularly relevant for the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, given their significant dependence on imports to meet regional demand for seafood protein and their limited domestic natural resources.
He noted that Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 and sovereign investment institutions are encouraging greater investment in sustainable food and agriculture, including aquaculture and technologies associated with the blue economy.
“Disruptions to global supply chains could accelerate investment in domestic production capabilities and international partnerships, while also prompting a reassessment of import policies and strategic food reserves,” Choucair said.
The availability of sovereign capital, he added, gives Gulf economies the ability to direct long-term investment toward food security, food innovation, and climate technologies.
Satellite Data Are Entering Investment Decisions
Choucair explained that institutional investors are evaluating several opportunities, including food companies with strong pricing power and diversified supply chains, as well as environmental technology, satellite systems, ocean-monitoring platforms, and artificial intelligence used to forecast marine productivity.
Conversely, companies heavily dependent on specific fisheries or traditional sources of fishmeal could face greater pressure. Credit risks could also rise for businesses and borrowers connected to climate-sensitive industries in Latin America and Asia.
Choucair expects private equity and venture capital to allocate more funding toward sustainable aquaculture and alternative proteins as long-term investors seek portfolios capable of absorbing climate shocks without sacrificing returns.
Risks and Opportunities Ahead
Choucair warned that a prolonged decline in ocean productivity could result in tighter supplies and higher prices, with the effects potentially amplified if El Niño coincides with additional marine heatwaves.
At the same time, he noted that the period following El Niño can bring recovery in chlorophyll levels and fish stocks in some regions, potentially creating a more balanced supply environment later in the cycle.
Samer Choucair concluded that signals emerging from the Pacific demonstrate that climate risk has become a structural factor in asset pricing. Integrating satellite data and climate analytics into due diligence and capital-allocation models, he said, is becoming increasingly necessary.
He added that long-term investment in food security, the blue economy, and climate technologies is likely to attract increasing amounts of capital, particularly in emerging markets and economies seeking to diversify their sources of growth and build more resilient supply chains.