Samer Choucair: Direct Yuan Settlements Are Redefining Currency Risk and Institutional Investment Opportunities
Entrepreneur Samer Choucair said the accelerating expansion by Chinese commercial banks of direct yuan settlement services to cover around 12 emerging-market currencies, including the Saudi riyal, Thai baht, Kazakh tenge, and Brazilian real, reflects a structural shift in the architecture of global trade and finance.
Choucair explained that this expansion is no longer simply a technical measure to facilitate payments, but part of a broader move to reduce dependence on the US dollar in cross-border transactions and reshape how institutional investors assess currency and liquidity risks.
He added that the widening use of direct yuan settlement channels is increasing the opportunity cost of holding liquidity exclusively in major currencies while opening new routes for institutional capital into markets connected to the Belt and Road Initiative, with growing opportunities in yuan-denominated fixed-income instruments and sovereign debt markets across Asia, Africa, and the Gulf.
Twelve emerging-market currencies enter the direct yuan settlement network
Samer Choucair noted that at least six Chinese commercial banks have added around 12 emerging-market currencies to their direct yuan clearing and settlement services during the current year.
He said the new currencies include the Saudi riyal, Thai baht, Brazilian real, and Kazakh tenge, as cross-border current-account transactions settled in yuan continued to expand.
Choucair explained that the value of these transactions rose by 18% during the first half of 2026 to reach RMB 9.83 trillion.
He emphasized that the figures demonstrate that China is no longer focused solely on increasing the use of the yuan in bilateral trade, but is also building financial infrastructure capable of supporting larger volumes of transactions outside the traditional dollar-centred system.
The yuan reshapes global trade flows
Samer Choucair said the accelerating internationalization of the yuan comes after decades in which the US dollar has dominated more than 80% of global trade settlements, supported by the depth and liquidity of US financial markets and the extensive payment networks built around the currency.
He added that the yuan’s share of China’s own goods-trade settlements has risen above 30%, indicating a significant change in the behaviour of companies and financial institutions.
China’s Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, CIPS, has supported this development by providing alternative settlement channels that do not rely entirely on the SWIFT network.
Choucair explained that the inclusion of currencies with relatively limited global trading volumes but strong economic links to China through supply chains or the Belt and Road Initiative reflects a deliberate strategy.
China builds bilateral settlement networks rather than directly challenging the dollar
Samer Choucair emphasized that China is not currently attempting to confront the US dollar directly across the world’s major currency markets.
Instead, it is focusing on building a network of bilateral direct-settlement channels.
He said this approach can reduce conversion costs and ease exposure to US-dollar liquidity risks during periods of geopolitical stress.
Choucair added that the success of this model depends not only on the scale of Chinese trade, but also on the ability of China and its trading partners to develop a financial ecosystem capable of supporting payments, hedging, and financing in local currencies.
Currency risk reshapes investor decisions
Samer Choucair explained that the expansion of yuan settlement is changing the map of currency risk within institutional portfolios.
He said investors maintaining large US-dollar exposure across emerging-market assets could gradually face a higher opportunity cost if yuan settlement continues to expand, particularly in sectors closely connected to trade with China.
Choucair stressed that this does not imply an imminent collapse in the dollar’s dominance.
However, it creates new capital-allocation opportunities in yuan-denominated debt instruments and local bond markets across partner economies.
Dollar liquidity could be redirected into new investments
Samer Choucair said a reduced need for the US dollar as an intermediary in certain commercial transactions could eventually lower demand for dollar reserves among some emerging-market central banks.
He explained that liquidity released as a result could potentially be redirected toward domestic investment or local-currency debt instruments.
Choucair added that exporters and importers across the Gulf and Asia could benefit from lower currency-conversion costs, potentially supporting profitability across trade, logistics, and energy.
The Saudi riyal enters the direct settlement system
Samer Choucair noted that the expansion of yuan settlement is directly relevant to Gulf economies, which are major commercial and strategic partners of China.
He said the inclusion of the Saudi riyal among currencies eligible for direct yuan settlement services could further facilitate trade and investment flows between Saudi Arabia and China, particularly across oil, petrochemicals, and joint investment projects.
Choucair explained that the development could support the creation of new financial channels between the two countries extending beyond trade settlement into joint financing, hedging, and investment instruments.
Vision 2030 strengthens yuan-linked investment opportunities
Samer Choucair emphasized that the evolution of yuan settlement aligns with key objectives of Saudi Vision 2030, particularly diversification of financing sources and the strengthening of the Kingdom’s position as a regional financial centre.
He said greater use of the yuan in bilateral trade could help attract additional Chinese direct investment into manufacturing, renewable energy, and tourism while reducing reliance on dollar-denominated financing.
Choucair added that the Public Investment Fund and Saudi banks could find opportunities to develop joint yuan-denominated financial products across debt markets and hedging instruments.
Gulf capital rebalances toward Asia
Samer Choucair noted that institutional investors in the Gulf are increasingly viewing these developments as an opportunity to rebalance portfolios toward assets linked to Asian economic growth.
He explained that attention could focus particularly on companies benefiting from Chinese supply chains or Belt and Road projects.
Choucair emphasized that the ability of domestic markets to provide effective yuan liquidity and hedging instruments will remain a decisive factor in attracting new capital flows.
Yuan restrictions still limit the pace of internationalization
Samer Choucair noted that the internationalization of the yuan continues to face significant challenges, particularly capital controls and the more limited depth of offshore yuan debt markets compared with US-dollar markets.
He said any escalation in trade or geopolitical tensions could slow the adoption of the yuan in international transactions.
At the same time, Choucair added that continued growth in CIPS and the expansion of bilateral currency-swap lines indicate a long-term commitment to building financial infrastructure capable of supporting wider use of the Chinese currency beyond its domestic market.
Asia, Africa, and the Middle East could be among the main beneficiaries
Samer Choucair explained that if current trends continue, the yuan’s share of global trade settlement is likely to rise gradually, particularly across Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.
He said this development could result in the repricing of certain emerging-market sovereign debt instruments as demand increases for yuan-denominated bonds or securities linked to Chinese-currency benchmarks.
Choucair noted that Western banks heavily dependent on dollar-conversion fees could face margin pressure, while Chinese and Asian financial institutions may benefit from growing transaction volumes.
Investment opportunities for sovereign wealth funds and asset managers
Samer Choucair said the internationalization of the yuan is a long-term process whose success will ultimately depend on institutional confidence, liquidity, and market depth.
He explained that sovereign wealth funds and asset managers could benefit from the transition by gradually building positions across a range of related assets, including offshore yuan bonds, shares of Chinese exporters, infrastructure projects in Belt and Road economies, and debt instruments in markets adopting direct yuan settlement.
Choucair emphasized that such a strategy requires a highly selective approach to assets and markets because governance standards, liquidity, and geopolitical risks vary significantly across countries benefiting from this trend.
Long-term investment extends beyond currency speculation
Samer Choucair noted that successful investing in this environment requires a selective approach focused on governance, liquidity, and geopolitical risk, with capital allocation based on long-term expectations for Asian trade growth rather than short-term bets on exchange rates.
He said investors who understand the structural dynamics of global trade will be better positioned to benefit from the redistribution of capital flows over the coming years.
Choucair added that the significance of the transition lies in the development of a new financial infrastructure for trade and investment, not merely in the greater use of the yuan as a settlement currency.
The global financial system moves toward greater multipolarity
Concluding his analysis, Samer Choucair emphasized that the expansion of direct yuan settlement services by Chinese banks is a clear indication that the global financial system is entering a more multipolar phase.
He said the addition of around 12 emerging-market currencies to the direct settlement network, alongside an 18% increase in cross-border current-account transactions settled in yuan to RMB 9.83 trillion during the first half of 2026, reflects a trend extending beyond bilateral trade toward a broader restructuring of global capital flows.
Choucair added that institutional investors across the Gulf, emerging markets, and the wider global economy increasingly need to understand these developments and translate them into disciplined capital-allocation strategies.
He emphasized that the ability to assess the trajectory of yuan internationalization, monitor the evolution of CIPS and bilateral swap lines, and evaluate opportunities across debt instruments and local markets connected to China will become increasingly important for generating sustainable returns in a more multipolar and rapidly changing global economic environment.