Samer Choucair: US Trade Policies Are Pushing the World into a New Phase of Economic Repositioning
Entrepreneur Samer Choucair said the new tariffs imposed by the US administration on approximately 60 trading partners, at rates ranging from 10% to 12.5% on the grounds of combating goods produced through forced labour, represent a new phase in the escalation of global protectionist policies.
He noted that the measures carry direct implications for international supply chains and capital flows.
Choucair explained that these actions, introduced alongside 50% tariffs on a range of Canadian goods, confirm that trade uncertainty will remain a structural factor throughout 2026, requiring institutional investors to reassess the geographic and sectoral distribution of their portfolios.
A new wave of trade protectionism
Samer Choucair explained that the new tariffs were introduced under Section 301 of the US Trade Act of 1974 following an investigation that concluded that a large number of trading partners had failed to impose or adequately enforce bans on imports of goods produced using forced labour.
He added that the measure faced widespread criticism.
The European Commission described it as lacking objective grounds, while the Brazilian government called it arbitrary and legally unjustified and announced the activation of its reciprocity law in response.
Australia, meanwhile, said the tariffs did not support free and fair trade and were instead intended primarily to increase revenue.
Choucair noted that the measures were introduced alongside 50% US tariffs on a group of Canadian exports valued at approximately $20 billion.
The move reflects the continuation of a protectionist approach despite previous court rulings that invalidated some broader tariffs, prompting many trading partners to accelerate plans to diversify their markets.
Pressure on global trade and supply chains
Samer Choucair emphasized that the new tariffs will increase import costs in the United States, potentially adding limited inflationary pressure while reducing the profit margins of exporters in emerging markets.
He added that several essential commodities, including iron ore, corn, soybeans, and Brazilian oil, could experience a partial redirection of trade flows.
Industrial supply chains in Europe and Asia will also face additional challenges related to higher costs and compliance requirements.
“What we are witnessing confirms that trade fragmentation is no longer a temporary event,” Samer Choucair said.
“It has become a structural factor requiring institutional investors to rebuild their portfolios around the principles of stability and resilience.”
Choucair added that capital allocation is increasingly favouring economies with diversified production bases and broad commercial relationships rather than those dependent on a single market.
Investors reorder their portfolios
Samer Choucair noted that global investors are becoming more inclined to favour defensive sectors and companies with geographically diversified supply chains as trade risks rise.
He explained that fixed-income markets could experience a limited widening of risk premiums on the bonds of emerging economies that depend heavily on exports to the United States.
The energy sector will also remain closely monitored, as weaker global growth resulting from trade disputes could affect demand for oil and gas.
Choucair added that energy-exporting economies with diversified trading partners will be better positioned to benefit from the redirection of global commerce.
He noted that private equity and venture capital funds may postpone certain cross-border transactions in traditional industrial sectors while accelerating investment in logistics, nearshoring, and digital services that reduce dependence on extended supply chains.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf are positioned to benefit
Samer Choucair explained that the Saudi economy stands out as one of the potential beneficiaries of the global redistribution of investment, supported by the environment for economic diversification and long-term capital created under Saudi Vision 2030.
He added that the Kingdom, supported by the Public Investment Fund, continues to develop advanced manufacturing, logistics, and renewable energy, strengthening its ability to withstand disruptions to global trade.
Choucair noted that Gulf markets also benefit from their geographic position connecting Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as their capacity to attract capital seeking relatively stable investment environments.
“Institutional investors increasingly prioritize economies that combine policy clarity with long-term structural growth,” Samer Choucair said.
“Saudi Arabia offers this combination through its major projects and continuing programs to attract investment.”
He added that infrastructure, digital transformation, and energy are among the sectors best positioned to absorb trade shocks because a substantial share of their revenue is supported by domestic and regional demand.
Choucair also expects the Saudi capital market and other Gulf markets to receive additional support as portfolios are reallocated away from markets more heavily exposed to US tariffs.
Investment risks and opportunities
Samer Choucair noted that the principal risk is the potential escalation of retaliatory measures among major economies, which could lead to a cycle of reciprocal tariffs that weakens global growth and increases volatility in commodity and currency markets.
He added that continued uncertainty may encourage multinational companies to delay capital expenditure and new investment decisions.
Choucair emphasized that the current environment creates promising opportunities for companies capable of reshoring production or diversifying their supplier networks.
It also benefits energy and commodity-exporting economies able to access new markets, as well as companies specializing in supply-chain technology, compliance, and governance.
“Risk management at this stage requires a stronger focus on governance and operational flexibility, while prioritizing investments capable of creating sustainable value rather than pursuing short-term gains,” Samer Choucair said.
He emphasized that trends during 2026 indicate a gradual movement of capital toward markets capable of converting geopolitical challenges into long-term competitive advantages.
A strategic perspective for investors
Concluding his remarks, Samer Choucair said the US administration’s continued use of trade instruments to reshape global economic relationships leaves several scenarios open.
These range from bilateral settlements that reduce tariff pressures to continued escalation leading to a deeper restructuring of global supply chains.
He added that institutional investors will continue to prioritize portfolios with strong geographic diversification and exposure to sectors supported by long-term structural demand.
“Sovereign wealth funds and asset managers in the region have an opportunity to increase their exposure to the Saudi economy and Gulf markets as part of a broader strategy of allocating capital to more stable and predictable environments,” Samer Choucair said.
Choucair emphasized that the next phase will bring greater competition among economies seeking to attract global capital.
He concluded that markets combining structural reform, stability, and the capacity to achieve sustainable growth will be the most attractive to investors, led by Saudi Arabia under the framework of Vision 2030.