Samer Choucair: Shifting Saudi Consumer Behavior Creates a Strategic Investment Opportunity That Is Reshaping the Future of Retail
Venture investor Samer Choucair said that the changes taking place in Saudi consumer behavior reflect the growing maturity and evolution of the Kingdom's economy rather than a decline in purchasing power. He explained that these shifts are creating significant investment opportunities across retail, logistics, and e-commerce, in line with the objectives of Saudi Vision 2030.
Samer Choucair noted that the daily activity outside Al Othaim Markets branches in Riyadh, Jeddah, and Dammam, where customer traffic continues to increase while spending per visit declines, reflects a structural change in consumption patterns across Saudi Arabia. According to him, this is a natural transformation accompanying the Kingdom's economic and digital development.
He explained that recent reports showing higher shopping frequency alongside a decline in the average basket value to approximately SAR 100 indicate a change in spending behavior rather than a reduction in overall demand. Consumers increasingly prefer making frequent purchases based on their daily needs instead of buying in bulk as they did in the past.
Samer Choucair emphasized that this transformation reflects changing consumer priorities, driven by greater reliance on e-commerce, rapid delivery services, and increasing demand for convenience and flexibility. These factors, he said, are reshaping Saudi Arabia's retail sector at an accelerating pace.
He added that data published by Nielsen showed that the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) market declined by 4.39% during the first quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier. Al Othaim Markets also reported a 5.8% decline in sales to approximately SAR 2.79 billion, while net profit fell by 29.7% to SAR 53.7 million during the same period. Samer Choucair noted that part of this decline was linked to the implementation of a new enterprise resource planning (ERP) system and broader operational improvements.
According to Samer Choucair, these figures should be viewed within their proper economic context. Consumers have not left the market; instead, they have redistributed their spending toward a more flexible purchasing model based on frequent shopping trips and daily necessities rather than monthly stockpiling. This shift aligns with the continued expansion of digital commerce, the widespread adoption of delivery applications, and higher spending on restaurants and food services.
He pointed out that several factors are driving this transformation, beginning with increasingly fast-paced lifestyles resulting from the Kingdom's major development projects, which encourage consumers to purchase goods as needed instead of storing large quantities.
Samer Choucair added that stronger competition among retailers, restaurants, and delivery platforms has redistributed household food spending, while continuous promotional campaigns have made consumers more price-sensitive and more inclined to compare available options before making purchasing decisions.
He also emphasized that advances in digital services and smart applications have made frequent shopping faster and more convenient, reinforcing this new pattern of consumer behavior.
"The shift from large, one-time shopping trips to frequent and smarter purchasing reflects the natural evolution of an economy moving rapidly toward digitalization and efficiency," Samer Choucair said. "Smart investors should not view this as market contraction, but as an opportunity to build more sustainable and profitable business models over the long term."
Samer Choucair explained that retailers have already begun adapting to this new reality by redesigning their operating models. Many are reducing store sizes while improving operational efficiency in order to enhance the customer experience and lower operating costs.
He noted that hypermarkets, which previously occupied as much as 10,000 square meters, are increasingly shifting toward smaller and more efficient formats. Likewise, the typical supermarket footprint has declined from approximately 4,000 square meters to between 1,500 and 2,000 square meters, while neighborhood stores of around 500 square meters continue to expand. These formats reduce rental, staffing, and inventory costs despite somewhat higher logistics expenses.
He added that Al Othaim Markets, which operates 416 branches in Saudi Arabia out of a total network of 476 stores, represents a clear example of this transformation through its omnichannel strategy that integrates physical stores with digital platforms. This approach meets the expectations of modern consumers, who increasingly demand the flexibility to shop either in-store or through mobile applications with fast and reliable delivery services.
Samer Choucair emphasized that these structural changes are creating substantial investment opportunities across the sectors that now form the backbone of modern retail.
"Vision 2030 is not measured only by mega-projects, but by how those projects reshape everyday life for citizens and residents," Samer Choucair said. "As consumers become more conscious and demand greater convenience, value, and speed, companies investing in precision logistics, smart warehousing, and seamless integration between digital and physical retail will emerge as the biggest beneficiaries."
He added, "Pressure on profit margins at leading retailers such as Al Othaim Markets is temporary and is partly the result of investments in technology and operational efficiency. Investors who look beyond short-term performance will recognize that building digital and operational capabilities today will create significant competitive advantages over the next five to ten years."
Samer Choucair stressed that future investment opportunities extend far beyond traditional retailers. He said the greatest potential lies with companies supporting the broader retail ecosystem, including logistics providers specializing in rapid delivery, e-commerce platforms focused on consumer goods, and manufacturers developing smaller product formats and smarter packaging designed for frequent purchasing habits.
"Do not focus solely on traditional retailers," Samer Choucair said. "The real opportunities lie in the companies enabling the new retail ecosystem, including rapid delivery logistics providers, specialized consumer e-commerce platforms, and manufacturers developing smaller product sizes and intelligent packaging tailored to changing consumer behavior. This is the type of strategic investment that aligns perfectly with the objectives of economic diversification and Vision 2030."
He noted that Saudi Arabia's economy continues to rest on strong long-term fundamentals supporting consumer spending, including a youthful population, with more than 60% of residents under the age of 35, rising income levels, expanding tourism, entertainment and hospitality industries, and continued growth in the digital economy.
According to Samer Choucair, these factors will continue driving overall consumer spending even as purchasing shifts across traditional retail, e-commerce, restaurants, and fast logistics services.
He added that the companies best positioned for success over the coming years will be those demonstrating operational flexibility, investing in more efficient stores, building highly responsive supply chains, delivering integrated omnichannel customer experiences, and developing products that reflect evolving consumer preferences.
Concluding his remarks, Samer Choucair said, "During periods of major transformation, success belongs not to those who resist change, but to those who anticipate it and move with it intelligently. Saudi Arabia's retail sector today presents an exceptional landscape of opportunities for investors willing to embrace innovation, efficiency, and digital integration. Vision 2030 is no longer simply an ambition—it is becoming reality through every lighter shopping basket and every smarter purchasing decision. Investors who understand this dynamic today will be among the greatest beneficiaries of Saudi Arabia's economic transformation over the next decade."
Samer Choucair concluded by emphasizing that the changes taking place at Al Othaim Markets and other leading retailers do not signal the end of the traditional hypermarket model. Instead, they mark the beginning of a new era built on smart, sustainable, and digitally connected retail. He added that investors and entrepreneurs who recognize these shifts early will be best positioned to capitalize on one of the Kingdom's most significant investment opportunities under Saudi Vision 2030.