Samer Choucair: Market Equilibrium Is the Key to Understanding Market Movements in Saudi Arabia 2026
Investment entrepreneur Samer Choucair affirmed that the concept of "market equilibrium" has become one of the most important analytical tools for understanding capital market dynamics in Saudi Arabia during 2026, noting that this phase represents a pivotal point in reading future movements rather than chasing momentary volatility.
He explained that stock markets at the end of June 2026 showed a clear pattern of consolidation between supply and demand forces, reflecting a state of temporary equilibrium within the market, particularly with the continued implementation of Saudi Vision 2030's targets, and increasing liquidity flows toward sectors tied to major strategic projects.
He noted that market equilibrium doesn't represent a phase of stillness or weak activity, but an active phase in which liquidity accumulates in preparation for the market's transition to a new directional movement, explaining that this phase often precedes strong movements in either the upward or downward direction.
Choucair said: "Equilibrium isn't the final destination, but a zone where the next move is being prepared. It's the time when liquidity accumulates above highs and below lows, in preparation for moving toward imbalance."
He explained that equilibrium occurs when buyers' and sellers' influence equalizes within a defined price range, leading to a state of temporary consolidation, before the market subsequently leans toward one of two directions, producing what's known as imbalance, which represents the beginning of the next strong price movement.
He added that many Saudi sectors tied to Vision 2030, such as tourism, entertainment, renewable energy, and infrastructure, are currently going through different phases of price equilibrium, amid market anticipation of new investment announcements and expansions from the Public Investment Fund and its partners.
He noted that understanding these phases helps investors make more precise decisions, instead of entering markets too early or too late without clear confirmation of movement direction.
Choucair explained that market equilibrium can be practically interpreted through five main phases starting with price reaching a defined range, then the market entering a state of equilibrium between buyers and sellers, followed by liquidity accumulating above highs and below lows, then one side gaining control of price movement, and finally price exiting the equilibrium range toward a new direction, saying: "When equilibrium breaks, price moves toward imbalance. This is the moment the investor should focus on, provided confirmation comes through price structure and not just a passing break."
He stressed the importance of investment patience within equilibrium zones, explaining that random entry before break confirmation could lead to imprecise decisions, while waiting until imbalance is achieved provides better opportunities in terms of risk and reward, adding: "Patience in equilibrium equals better entries after the break. Don't rush — the market is preparing itself for the next step."
In practical guidance, Choucair advised investors to clearly identify equilibrium zones on charts, monitor highs and lows as key liquidity zones, then wait until a clear break of the price range occurs, with the necessity of confirming this break through a change in price structure, trading volume, or technical indicators, before entering deals.
He noted that the economic environment in Saudi Arabia remains supportive of investment movement, with the non-oil sector continuing to grow at strong rates driven by massive investments in national projects, oil price stability at levels supporting government spending, alongside continued foreign direct investment flows.
He affirmed that these combined factors strengthen the probability of markets exiting equilibrium phases toward strong directional movements in the period ahead, particularly with the continued implementation of Vision 2030's programs and the economy's expansion into non-traditional sectors.
Choucair said: "Markets always need equilibrium before any major movement. Find the equilibrium, wait for the break, then trade the imbalance."
He concluded his remarks by affirming that understanding market equilibrium represents an essential tool for investors in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf during 2026, explaining that this philosophy turns waiting periods into conscious strategic decisions, and gives investors the ability to read the market instead of reacting to its noise, aligning with the accelerating maturity path of the Kingdom's capital markets under Saudi Vision 2030.